Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
